Maybe the real genius keeps to himself

If you could figure out the stock market (or any market) with a model or theory, why would you tell anyone?  Presumably, if you were correct, people would exploit the theory to make money until the theory no longer applied.  I can think of only one reason to step up on the soapbox and announce your theory; that is, if you're banking on fame.  By making predictions, an analyst has a chance at being correct.  If his or her timing is perfect and the idea predicts a large market event then the fame will land him book sales, a good job, and fame.  It's like playing the lottery - every time a prediction is made, a metaphorical ticket is bought.  Just like a real lottery, the only penalty for being wrong is not much of a loss, people just ignore you (the cost of the ticket is lost, you're time spent on the idea is lost).  The analyst or researcher is then free to play the lottery again by making more theories, predictions, models etc.

So there is no downside to stepping up to the podium if you're not sure how correct you are.  If anything, there is an incentive to announce all of your' questionable ideas, maybe by chance you'll be correct.  The data shows this to be true.  Those who have famously predicted big market moves, in aggregate, had usually made many false predictions as well.

Back to the original idea.  If your idea really has the ability to predict a market and you are sure of it, why tell anyone?  You could invest into it yourself, you would become rich before people caught on.  It only makes sense to announce what you are unsure of.

I'm sure there are a few people that are not driven by this incentive, but if my area of study is correct at all (in that one of the pillars of economics is that incentives matter), then it has to be true to some degree.  I like to keep this idea in the back of my mind when I read anything.

Maybe the real genius keeps to himself.